alifornia Governor Gavin Newsom has received a boost in his chances of defeating Vice President JD Vance if the two came head-to-head in a hypothetical 2028 election after new national polling showed the pair tied for support.

In an Emerson College Polling national survey, Newsom was tied with Vance with 44 percent support and 12 percent undecided. In July, the Emerson national poll had Vance at 45 percent ahead of Newsom on 42 percent.

The same survey had the California lawmaker as leading the 2028 Democratic presidential primary at 25 percent, a 13-point increase from Emerson’s June national poll.

Newsweek reached out to Newsom and Vance for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The poll’s release follows weeks in which Newsom has attracted significant national media attention for his high-profile battles with President Donald Trump and the governor’s efforts to redraw his state’s congressional boundaries.

Newsom has framed his redistricting push as a response to Republican efforts in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott, backed by Trump, has promised to sign off a new GOP-friendly map ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Meanwhile, the official Newsom press office X account has taken to mimicking and mocking Trump’s writing style and voice, posting in all caps and using nicknames for opponents such as ‘Just Dance Vance’ for the vice president.

The August Emerson poll was conducted August 25-26.

Left: JD Vance at an executive order signing ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House. Right: California Governor Gavin Newsom answers questions after signing legislation calling for a special election on a redrawn…  Left: AP Photo/Evan Vucci Right: AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

What To Know

The Emerson national survey showed Newsom at 25 percent in the hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, up 13 points from Emerson’s June results, where he garnered 12 percent.

In August, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg polled at 16 percent, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 11 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 5 percent, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each at 4 percent.

In the hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential primary, over half (52 percent) of Republican voters support Vance, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 9 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7 percent.

None of the lawmakers has announced their intention to run for president in 2028 at this time.

What People Are Saying

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release: “Governor Newsom’s support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and white (10% to 24%) voters.”

Speaking about a hypothetical 2028 election, Kimball said: “Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%.”

Speaking to Newsweek earlier this month, Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi said: “Gavin Newsom has always been a well-recognized figure in American politics, but recently he’s asserted himself as a leader of the resistance against President Donald Trump, especially with regards to more combative communications and taking Trump head on and getting under his skin.”

What Happens Next

The next Democratic presidential primary contest is expected to begin in early 2028, followed by the presidential election in November.