Mike Trout is more available than he has ever been before. If the Cardinals are interested, what would a deal look like?

We’ve already discussed a Mike Trout trade before, but today I’m looking to flesh out some of the scenarios for the Cardinals provided in this article. Trout is due nearly $250MM over the next seven seasons. Moving a contract that large is always a difficult prospect. Trout’s recent injuries make it all the more difficult. He hasn’t eclipsed 140 games since 2016. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Trout has missed over 200 games!

Now, nobody is questioning the greatness of Mike Trout. When on the field, he continues to be one of baseball’s premier players. He still makes the All-Star Game every year and continues to produce gaudy numbers. However, he just isn’t on the field enough. We also now know that he has a serious back condition. Though it isn’t hampering now, it should at least give evaluators some additional caution when projecting their future performance.

We actually do have some precedent for this type of move. Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Canó, and several others were traded while on gigantic contracts. The best comparison for Trout is probably Stanton. He was traded by an incompetent franchise (the Marlins are much better these days), he was owed well over $250MM, he was coming off of an elite stretch, and he carried some injury concerns. Stanton was several years younger and had a few additional years of control, but the general circumstances are strikingly similar. They’re similar enough that we can begin to model a Trout deal off of the Stanton deal.

The Marlins officially traded Stanton and $30MM to the New York Yankees in exchange for Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, and Jose Devers. Neither Devers nor Guzman were highly rated prospects, and Castro was a solid but unspectacular regular who was entering his ninth year at the MLB level. Perhaps landing Trout will require a bit more due to his incredible pedigree, but his injury history and his age present major concerns that will absolutely impact his value.

Package One – No Money

Angels Receive: UTIL Tommy Edman, C Jimmy Crooks II, OF Travis Honeyman

Cardinals Receive: OF Mike Trout, RHP Griffin Canning

It’s difficult to perfectly replicate the Stanton deal. Notably, the Cardinals came close to acquiring Stanton, demonstrating that they have been willing to take on massive contracts in the past. The Cardinals have a fairly strong farm system that should absolutely interest the Angels, whose farm ranks among baseball’s worst. What the Cardinals lack is a true comparison for Starlin Castro. Edman is much younger with more defensive upside. Castro was more expensive as well and was closer to free agency than any other young player in the Cardinals’ system such as Thomas Saggese or César Prieto. Thus, the Angels would likely be forced to include another piece.

Enter Griffin Canning, a young starter with dwindling control. So far in Anaheim, the results have been disappointing. He’s been a below-average starter since debuting in 2019 and missed all of the 2022 season with an injury. Canning will reach free agency after the 2026 season, meaning he currently has three years of control. Perhaps a change of scenery could benefit the young hurler, who once ranked among MLB’s best prospects. Canning slotted in at 63rd on MLB Pipeline’s 2019 top 100 list. Notably, that was just two spots below Nolan Gorman.

This would be a chance for the Cardinals to get creative to fix their pitching crisis. Canning may not immediately fit into their rotation, but he would be an interesting depth addition with the potential for mid-rotation production in the future.

The Angels should be interested in a deal like this. Moving on from Trout will be painful, and it may be painful enough that the Angels don’t do so at all. But getting out from under Trout’s massive contract will free up significant payroll space. This return may seem minimal, but it’s likely the only way to avoid taking on significant money.

Package Two – Considerable Cash

Angels Receive: OF Dylan Carlson, LHP Cooper Hjerpe, INF Masyn Winn

Cardinals Receive: OF Mike Trout, $120MM

This represents a middle scenario. Here, the Angels buy a couple of intriguing prospects from the Cardinals in Hjerpe and Winn. Both have plenty of control and will cost nothing, freeing up tons of payroll for the Angels. They’ll also receive Dylan Carlson, a talented outfielder who has struggled to find his footing at the big league level. Carlson has felt like an excellent change-of-scenery candidate for the last year or so, and this deal would give him the chance for a fresh start.

Since posting an OPS of .780 in his first full season, Carlson has taken incremental steps back each season, with his production bottoming out in 2023. He may not have much time left to prove his worth in St. Louis. We speculated he might be shipped out at the deadline to help the Cardinals acquire starting pitching, but the team opted to hold on to him for the remainder of the season. With the emergence of Richie Palacios late in the 2023 season, some are wondering whether the Cardinals still need to roster Carlson for the 2024 season.

In this scenario, the Cardinals would be parting with a lot of young talent and taking on an incredibly risky contract. The Angels would thus likely be forced to send back a large sum of cash. $120MM feels about right, but these things are difficult to judge, and the Cardinals may expect even more money to help cover Trout’s gargantuan deal.

Package Three – Contract Swaps

Angels Receive: LHP Steven Matz, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, OF Lars Nootbaar

Cardinals Receive: OF Mike Trout, LHP Reid Detmers $80MM

If the Angels still want to win ballgames after dealing Trout, they can. There was widespread speculation at the deadline that the Cardinals may move Goldschmidt, though these rumors were shut down by the team. I’ve long advocated for the Cardinals to keep Goldschmidt, but his high-level production is undoubtedly attractive to other clubs. With Goldy added to their lineup, the Angels would be much more likely to withstand the blow of dealing Trout.

Lars Nootbaar would be another excellent addition for the Angels. He’s a statcast darling with the potential to improve further. He’s been incredibly productive at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup. Unfortunately for the Angels, the Cardinals may not be willing to move him, even in a scenario like this one. His elite on-base s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁s are vital to the team’s offensive production.

The third player headed to Los Angeles in this scenario is Steven Matz, a lefty with two years left on his deal. I’ve written about Matz extensively, and I’d be unwilling to trade him, especially after a solid 2023 season. While many Cardinal fans have stated that his contract is unbearable, it’s actually quite affordable, especially considering his strong production. Perhaps a young starter such as Reid Detmers (or even Patrick Sandoval) could interest the Cardinals. It would certainly take a pitching upgrade to part from Nootbaar, but it’s debatable as to whether either Sandoval or Detmers is significantly better than Matz. In this scenario, the Angels would still be on the hook for a significant cash sum as well.

Each of these scenarios leaves something to be desired for one of the teams involved. The Cardinals are generally in danger of losing financial flexibility or parting with too much young talent, while the Angels will simply struggle to move on from the best player in franchise history. The sentimental connection between Trout and Los Angeles may be too big a barrier for the Angels to overcome this offseason, even as reports confirm that he’s more likely to be traded than ever before.