Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty to be excited about as the 2025 MLB season looms, but Shohei Ohtani’s pitching debut in Dodger Blue is likely near the top of many lists.
Ohtani is the most successful two-way player in decades, and LA fans are itching to see the three-time MVP, 2022 Cy Young Award vote recipient and World Baseball Classic-closing pitcher in action on both sides of the ball. The 30-year-old underwent his second UCL repair surgery months before he signed his 10-year contract with the Dodgers before the 2024 season, and he hopes to pitch again in 2025.
Ohtani is recovering from two surgeries before the upcoming campaign which affect both parts of his game. He also underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after injuring his shoulder in a slide during Game 2 of the World Series. He’s been swinging, has taken live batting practices and has thrown bullpens, during which his velocity has progressively ticked up.
UCL surgery recovery, particularly for Tommy John surgery, is known to be long and arduous. Most pitchers miss an entire season of play, or a year of action, after they receive the procedure. Ohtani is an outlier, since he could still swing a bat after the surgery and he played all of last year, but his return to pitching could still be a difficult one. Many pitchers take multiple seasons to recover properly, or the results don’t last.
Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers teammate Walker Buehler is cautionary tale for injury recovery
Ohtani’s former teammate, Walker Buehler, is a prime example. Buehler has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, the first in 2015 and the second in 2022. He posted a 2.90 ERA in his first 573.1 innings with the Dodgers from 2017-21. When he started experiencing elbow issues in 2022, his ERA rose to 4.02 — by no means a bad metric — but crept all the way up to 5.38 after his second Tommy John surgery in 2024.
Former Mets top pitching prospect Matt Harvey’s recovery went a different direction. He had success on the mound immediately after the surgery, but his dominance didn’t last. Harvey posted a 2.73 ERA over 59.1 innings in 2012 and 2.27 over 178.1 innings in 2013 before he needed his UCL repaired. Immediately after he recovered, he logged a 2.71 ERA over 189.1 frames, but never posted a sub-four ERA again in the remaining six years of his career.
UCL reconstructions are likely not the only factor in some pitchers’ decline in performance after the surgery. Age could also play a part in lower success rates, as players are usually another year or two older than they were when they got the surgery when they’re ready to return to the big leagues.
Ohtani has now had two UCL repair surgeries and, in July, he’ll be on the so-called “wrong” side of 30. Many baseball fans aren’t under the impression that he can continue as a two-way player forever, and it will be interesting to see how his progression changes after his second elbow surgery.
It’s in no way certain that a pitcher’s performance declines after Tommy John surgery. Ohtani’s recovery seems to be going well, and he’s already proven to fans across the baseball world that he’s as close to superhuman as an athlete can get. Many times has he defied the odds against him, and UCL surgery recovery could become just another hurdle in his path to another World Series or unanimous MVP award.
